Bet the Future is a policy and action stock market where you can buy and sell shares in policy developments and action events in the same way that you buy shares of companies on the financial markets – except it's free and you can put your skills on display.
What do the prices mean?
The current price of a stock often represents the probability that the underlying event will occur. For example, if the topic states that some agencies will remain under a continuing resolution for all of FY 2007, and the current price is $73, then the currently estimated probability of that event is 73 percent. Alternatively, if the stock states that a procurement will be awarded a certain number of days after June 1, 2007, and the current value is $61, then the prediction is that the award will occur no sooner than August 1, 2007 (61 days after June 1).
How do I decide what a stock is worth?
You decide based on what you think will happen. The idea behind prediction markets is that generally knowledgeable people will bring a wide variety of perspectives to a particular problem. You may take into account your own experience, articles you have read, historical data, and the behavior of the market itself.
What is the play money good for?
Participating in Government Futures' Bet the Future market gives you the following benefits:
- You will clarify your own opinion about issues
- You can influence others' opinions through your discussion and your bets
- Others' betting patterns and discussions will give you valuable information and insight
- You can get information on topics you are interested in by creating your own market
- You can become a Top Trader
Can other people find out who I am?
You are identified in public only by your "alias". The Government Futures team has access to your e-mail address and the information you provided when you registered, and we keep it private. You can read our Government Futures privacy policy by clicking on the "privacy" link at the bottom of any of our web pages for more details.
If a topic interests you, click on its title and you'll be asked whether you think the current prediction is too high or too low. Select one and you'll be given some options of how many "shares" of the stock you want to buy or sell. Make your best choice depending on your judgment and your available balance.
How do the prices in a market change?
Markets are guided by the forces of supply and demand. Every time a user buys a share in a particular idea or outcome, that demand forces the price up a little. The more people buy, the higher the price becomes. If the price gets too high, people will do the natural, self-interested thing and sell their shares to get a profit (or sell shares that they don't own on credit). Similarly, each time a user sells a share, the price goes back down some.
How do I make money when stock prices fall?
If you think the current price is too high, you can make a profit when the stock goes down. You do this by selling shares you don't own on credit. (This is known as "short selling".) When the price goes down you can buy the stock back at a lower price than you sold it for, and pocket the difference. At this time our system is set up so that you can't end up in debt, so this limits the number of shares you can sell on credit. The bottom line is that you buy shares if you think the price is too low and sell them if you think the price is too high.
I sold a block of shares, but I got less money out of it than I thought I would.
Just like the market price increases when you purchase shares, each share you sell drives the market price down. If you're selling a lot of shares, the last share you sell will be worth less than the first.
I think the current price is already reflective of what will happen. What do I do now?
If you own shares, you should hold them. If you sell them, the market price will start to go down and you won't make as much profit as you could if you wait for the market to close. If you don't own shares yet, keep an eye on the price. If it moves away from what you think the outcome will be, act then.
What happens when a stock is closed out?
When a stock you hold is closed out, you are credited with the closing price times the number of shares you have bought (or sold on credit). If the topic asked whether an event will occur (such as the Bears winning the Super Bowl), the closing price will be $100 if the Bears win and $0 if they lose. If the topic asked for a numerical value, such as the amount, in billions of dollars, of the federal IT budget request, then the closing price will be the actual amount of the request, e.g., $68 (representing $68 billion).
Can I create a new market around an interesting topic?
Yes! We encourage you to do so. Just click on "create a market" and follow the process through. We will approve your market and post it, or notify you why we did not do so, within two business days.
When you sell shares on credit you are betting that the market price of a stock is going to go down instead of up. The idea is to sell shares you don't have at a high price, and buy them back later once the market price has fallen. You get to keep the difference as profit. Because you never know how high a price will go up, we've set up specific rules for selling shares on credit so you don't get yourself in to trouble:
- You can buy back shares you bought on credit with the money in your bank.
- There is a limit on how much stock you can sell on credit. You can figure out what that limit is by adding your available balance to the total value of shares you have bought. For example, if you have $10 available balance, and you also own $10 of stock, you can sell $20 of stock on credit. In other words, we try not to allow you to go in to debt by always protecting you against the worst possible scenario.
How can I tell how much money I have?
Your balances are listed in the "total assets" box which you can find on your dashboard/portfolio. Your balance is also listed on each market trade page.
How can I get more money?
You can earn money by trading wisely in markets. Look for good ideas that are undervalued, examine market descriptions for interesting things that others might not have noticed, or use your own unique, personal knowledge to make predictions that others can't.
Can I give some of my money to another user?
Money is non-transferable - you must earn your own by trading.
We support the latest versions of Internet Explorer, Firefox, and Mozilla for Windows XP and 2000. For Mac OS X we support the latest versions of Safari, Firefox, and Mozilla. The application may work in alternate OSes and browsers, but we can't make any promises.